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Economic Chartbook

Written by Jane Caron, CFA, Chief Economic Strategist

• Investors are fretting about the sustainability of the recovery. While we agree that there are serious risks to worry about, we cannot find sufficient reason to materially reduce our base-case forecasts for real GDP growth of near 3.5% in 2010 and 3% in 2011. Still, with risks weighted to the downside, investors are right to be cautious.
• Our forecast already factors in many of the fears du jour such as severe state and local budgets constraints, tightening fiscal policy at the federal level, weak nonresidential real estate spending, a declining lift from inventory restocking, and slower export growth in coming quarters. The forecast also assumes that the upswing in domestic demand will level off now that the economy has reached a moderate cruising speed. more

The Impact of Financial Reform

Written by David Starr, Head of Institutional Management &
William Gardner, Senior Client Portfolio Manager

The Dodd-Frank bill, recently passed by Congress, can be considered the most far-reaching financial legislation in over 80 years. It will have a lasting impact on critical elements of the financial environment, including Federal Reserve oversight and transparency, rating agency protocol and behavior, credit risk retention, and derivatives treatment. Whether the legislation will actually serve to protect consumers or mitigate the risk of another financial crisis, however, remains unclear at best. more

Additional Articles

• Fixed Income Sector Review
• Economic Update
• International Bond Market Update

In the Markets

Written by Derrick Wulf, CFA, Head of Interest Rate Positioning

The Federal Reserve left monetary policy largely unchanged in the second quarter after completing its large-scale asset purchase program at the end of March, but there was much debate within the Fed about its holdings of mortgage-backed securities, its eventual exit strategy, the potential economic impact of the European sovereign debt crisis, and the appropriate policy response should economic and financial conditions deteriorate further. more